Academy Awards Preview

By James Hill III

For the past 83 years, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has, through its over 6,000 voting members, anointed the best films of each year with its Academy Awards. For films released in 2010, the 83rd annual Academy Awards (informally known as the Oscars) are this Sunday, Feb. 27.

The 2011 Oscars are the second in a row to be affected by the rule change that nominates ten films for Best Picture, instead of the previous norm of five. This new precedent allows for two of the year's best sellers – and most critically acclaimed hits – to be included in the nominee's list: "Toy Story 3" and "Inception."  

In contrast to years past, the remaining Best Picture nominees are also movies the general public actually watched. Seven of the ten nominated films have made more than $100 million at the box office, which is generally the measurement of a genuine hit.  

After surveying some Santa Clara students, I found the popular movies among students were similar to those of the general public. The survey asked students "what was the best movie you saw last year?" and came out with a litany of responses, from Best Picture co-favorite "The Social Network" to nominees "Toy Story 3, "Inception," "True Grit," "The Kids are All Right" and "The King's Speech." Other Oscar nominated films like "Despicable Me" received tallies from students, and even romantic comedy "Going the Distance" and action bloodbath "The Expendables" received a vote.  

And my personal pick, "Black Swan," is among the nominated movies, though it isn't expected to win. Despite a varied fan sentiment and an expanded field of ten nominees, the race for Best Picture is likely down to two films. This year the presumptive favorites are Facebook drama "The Social Network" and British royalty tale "The King's Speech."  

As much as I'd like to believe that the Academy will try voting for something different, all signs point to the traditional Oscar bait, "The King's Speech," taking home the most important golden statuette.  As for the other major races, there is, in some ways, a little more suspense.

Best Actor, however, is not one of those suspenseful races.  "The King's Speech" may or may not take home quite a few Oscars, but the one that is most secure is Colin Firth in this category.  

Oscar host James Franco, though acclaimed and excellent in "127 Hours," along with "The Social Network's" Jesse Eisenberg, will just have to be content with nominations.  

Best Actress is another two-person race, with "Black Swan's" Natalie Portman the slight favorite over "The Kids are All Right's" Annette Bening.  Though this is Bening's fourth nomination and she's never won before, I get the feeling this is Natalie's year. She hasn't even been derailed by starring in a movie with Ashton Kutcher that came out during the Oscar voting period…now that's momentum.

As for the supporting races, things also seem more open. Christian Bale is the presumptive favorite for Supporting Actor for his phenomenal turn as the cocaine-addled Dicky Eklund, brother of Mark Wahlberg's Micky Ward, in "The Fighter," but, as with most other categories, if "The King's Speech" turns into a steamroller it could pick up the award here for a deserving, but not quite most deserving Geoffrey Rush.

Helena Bonham Carter is "The King's Speech's" Supporting Actress contender, though another member of "The Fighter's" ensemble, Melissa Leo, is favored.  I personally forecast a bit of an upset, and predict that 14-year-old Hailee Steinfeld of "True Grit" will take home the gold, though in all honesty she deserves a Lead Actress nomination.  The Academy tends to reward young actors and actresses in the Supporting categories.

And in the last crop of major awards, Best Director and Screenplay (Adapted and Original), the races run the gamut from near-complete locks to a race that seems open, but apparently isn't.

Aaron Sorkin has been almost unanimously considered a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay for his work on "The Social Network." Meanwhile, "The Social Network's" director, David Fincher, was the front-runner for much of awards season until recently being overtaken by "The King's Speech" director Tom Hooper, winner of the Directors Guild of America's top prize; in the last 60 years, the Oscars have only disagreed with the DGA six times.

As for Best Adapted Screenplay, almost all critics predict the award will be swept up in the momentum of "The King's Speech," though Christopher Nolan's script for "Inception" or Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg's for "The Kids are All Right" could pull an upset.

In general, predicting the Oscars isn't really a case of personal taste or even general observation.  The Academy tends to vote in a very predictable manner, following a few key trends, momentum, and history.  Barring some surprises, 2011 looks to be no different.

Before concluding, there are a couple more Oscar-related tidbits to bring up. Look for a future column addressing the lack of diversity at the Oscars/award shows in general (women, racial minorities, non-traditional Oscar contenders/categories, etc.).  

Additionally, if you like a chance to mock the worst in Hollywood, the 31st annual Golden Raspberry Awards are given out the Saturday before the Oscars; leading with nine nominations are M. Night Shyamalan's "The Last Airbender" and "The Twilight Saga: Eclipse."

Next year's 84th Academy Awards don't yet have a date but, like every year, I'm sure I'll be right back with another look at awards season adn the race to the Oscars red carpet.

Contact James at jhill@scu.edu or at (408) 554-1918.