BCS forecasts cloudy 2003 finale
By Brian Betz
In the immortal words of the great play-by-play announcer Keith Jackson, "whoa nelly" do we have a sticky situation going on right now in college football. Believe it or not, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system is such a mess that even a team like Miami could win out and still be denied a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.
Before the season began, the defending champions appeared to be a lock for the Fiesta, which is played in Tempe, Ariz., as long as they went undefeated. Who'da thunk that wins over Florida, Florida State, Tennessee and Virginia Tech wouldn't get enough love from the computers to catapult them into the national title game? But with the underachieving seasons the Seminoles, Vols and Gators have experienced thus far, their strength of schedule isn't too appealing to the BCS. Big East showdowns with Temple, Rutgers and Connecticut don't help much either.
For the first time since 1971, seven major Division 1 teams are undefeated going into week 11: Oklahoma, Miami, Georgia, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and, you guessed it, Notre Dame.
The 8-0 Fighting Irish are without a doubt the biggest surprise of the bunch, scoring 49% of their total points off of takeaways. Tyrone Willingham's Golden Domers have crept their way back among the nation's elite with a system and winning attitude that is building excitement among Irish supporters all around South Bend, not to mention Santa Clara.
Oddly enough, Notre Dame could potentially end up in any one of the major bowls. It all depends on which numbers everyone's favorite computerized system punches out at the season's end. Although a long shot, one scenario could land the Irish in the Rose Bowl for the first time since Knut Rockne delivered his famous "gipper" speech back in 1924. A game that has traditionally featured the Big 10 and Pac-10 champs has been altered since the BCS system was introduced in 1998. But, if Oklahoma and Ohio State end the year as the only teams undefeated, and Notre Dame loses just one, don't doubt it.
As it stands, the frontrunners to Fiesta on January 4 are the Sooners and the Irish. Miami's current three-tenths lead over Notre Dame in the BCS polls likely won't hold up even if the Canes win this weekend, that is assuming the Irish defeat a respectable Boston College team (which was the same team that almost crushed Miami's title hopes last year).
At the same time, however, Notre Dame was hurt because Michigan, Michigan State and Air Force all lost this past weekend. Still, the Irish entered the week with the nation's toughest schedule, which is the second most important aspect in determining the BCS Champion after wins and losses.
As far as everyone else is concerned, very few have a chance at the big one. Should No. 4 Georgia romp Florida in Gainesville, they will have all but clinched the SEC East. If the Bulldogs go on to sweep the rest of their schedule, including the SEC title game, and get some help from the teams ahead of them, they will be playing in Tempe.
Virginia Tech will need to look more impressive than they did in their 20-10 victory over Temple, notably by finding a way to end Miami's nation high 29-game winning streak.
Ohio State will have to hop on the back of freshman stud Maurice Clarett if they want to be in the hunt, but more than likely they will have a rematch with Washington State in the Rose Bowl.
If enough teams finish the year unbeaten, there might be a need for two national title games. Since that can't happen, everyone will go back to criticizing the system.
Things could be solved by an eight-team, three-week tournament, but that would be too easy now. Instead, we will have to wait and see how this BCS mess unfolds in the waning month.