One Giant Guessing Game

By Henry Gula

The seven-round, three-day media extravaganza that is the NFL draft is meant to attract an audience. It's meant to be the equivalent of a New Year's celebration for NFL fans, coming right in the middle of the offseason when fans start to miss their favorite game the most. It brings football back to the front of everyone's mind with the latest installment beginning tonight.

In last year's NFL draft, 253 players were selected. Of those 253, an amateur football fan would recognize maybe 10 of those names. A dedicated football fan might recognize about 25.

Analysts on TV play up and publicize every pick, especially in the first two rounds, as if they can see the future.

But speculating accurately about a player's future NFL career with any degree of accuracy is nearly impossible. More often than not, it comes down to experience, instinct and a lot of luck.

That's the magic of the NFL draft. Any player could be the next Tom Brady, a sixth-round pick in 2000, a Wes Welker, undrafted in 2004, or an Arian Foster, undrafted in 2009.

"I really believe you don't take all-pros in the draft, you make them all-pros," John Elway, the Denver Broncos' executive vice president of football operations, told the Denver Post. "In the end, not every guy is going to be developed at the same pace and not every position is the same."

But expecting a "draft class" to hand your team seven, five or even three new pro-bowl quality starters is hopelessly inaccurate. 

There will always be the big names that produce immediately, but this is not the case for all the top picks. 

The Oakland Raiders took JaMarcus Russell with the first pick in 2007, receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey in the top ten in 2009 and linebacker Rolando McClain in the top ten in 2010. Russell was an immediate bust, Heyward-Bey has yet to live up to his potential and McClain is no longer with the Raiders after three unproductive seasons.

In 2011, the San Francisco 49ers drafted Aldon Smith in the first round, Colin Kaepernick in the second round and also took Chris Culliver and Kendall Hunter. All have turned into productive pros, with Kaepernick bursting onto the scene last year to lead the team to a Super Bowl appearance. They had a good draft.

However, this past year, their first round selection was wide receiver A.J. Jenkins. In 2012, he played 37 snaps, was thrown to once and dropped it. 2012 wasn't nearly as productive for the team. 

If you want to see all of tomorrow's stars from this year's draft, be sure not to turn it off after the first round.

Henry Gula is a sophomore communication major.