Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives to the basket beside Cleveland Cavaliers center Evan Mobley in the second half of an NBA basketball game in Cleveland, Sunday, March 8, 2026. **(AP Photo/David Richard)**

Phil Jackson, winner of 11 NBA titles as a coach and another two as a player, set a rule for teams to be considered true title contenders. This standard required an NBA franchise to reach 40 wins before it hit 20 losses. Since the 1979-1980 season, when the league added the 3-point line, 41 of 45 seasons played have been won by teams that reach Jackson’s “40-20” benchmark. To go a step further from 40-20, the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2006 Miami Heat are the only NBA champions since 1979 with 30 or more losses during the regular season.

This year, three teams met the 40-20 requirement, but one exception makes a strong case for inclusion in the trio of possible champions.

Boston Celtics* (43-21)

The Celtics are a strange case. They did not reach 40 wins before 20 losses, suffering a defeat to the Denver Nuggets on February 25 that dropped them to 38-20. However, the Celtics have been on a tear recently, winning five of their last six games. This included a 148-111 blowout over the Brooklyn Nets, in which they recorded the highest effective field-goal percentage (80.8) and true shooting percentage (82.6) ever in a single game in league history.

The Celtics also own the second-highest net rating at 8.0, which measures a team’s point differential over 100 possessions, trailing only the defending champs and the 52-15 Oklahoma City Thunder. Boston is undefeated since the return of superstar Jayson Tatum to the lineup after suffering a torn right Achilles tendon in last year’s playoffs. They sit only 2.5 games back from the first-place Pistons, and look to be a dangerous team, no matter who they face.

Oklahoma City Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives past New York Knicks' 0g Anunoby (8) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 4, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Oklahoma City Thunder (52-15)

As mentioned above, the reigning champion Thunder hit 40 wins against the Orlando Magic on Feb. 3 while holding just 11 losses. The Thunder have been the clear favorite since starting the year 24-1, tying the 2015-2016 Golden State Warriors for the best 25-game start in NBA history.

With last year’s NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the helm, and added depth with deadline acquisitions such as former Sixers guard Jared McCain providing much-needed shooting, or the early explosion from second-year player Ajay Mitchell prior to his injury that has kept him out of the last 20 games, the Thunder are an even trickier team to match up with than before. Mitchell might just be the team’s unsung hero, as they are 38-6 in games where he plays.

Star rim protector Chet Holmgren, along with Santa Clara University’s own Jalen Williams ’22, who also has been battling injuries after receiving surgery on his wrist following their NBA Championship run, make up the Thunder’s ‘big 3’ with plenty of depth to go around as players like Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Jaylin Williams—yes, there are two—all play vital roles on the league-leading Thunder.

The Thunder hold the NBA’s best net rating at 10.9, with a sizable gap between them and second place.

Detroit Pistons (45-18)

The Pistons have continued to build on a great 2024-2025 season, winning their 40th game against the Toronto Raptors with just 13 losses, after finishing 44-38 and falling in the first round to the New York Knicks in the previous year.

It marked the first Pistons playoff win since the 2007-2008 playoffs, as they were swept in 08-09, 15-16 and 18-19, accumulating 15 straight playoff losses, an NBA record. Over the four seasons prior to their 2024-2025 season, the Pistons won just 74 games and lost 244.

When looking for the direct cause of the Pistons’ turnaround, their recent draft picks tell the story. Franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, has played his way into MVP conversations, averaging 25.2 PPG to go along with 9.8 assists and 5.7 RPG, yet his poor shooting splits, 46/34/81 (field goal, 3-point and free throw percentages), along with the Pistons lackluster half-court offense leave experts wondering if this Pistons team is legitimate come playoff time.

Following their selection of Cade Cunningham, the 2022 draft landed the Pistons Jalen Duren with the 13th overall pick after a draft-day trade. Duren has bloomed into a first-time all-star this year with dominant scoring at the rim to pair with great defense. He is averaging a career-high 18.5 PPG while shooting 63% from the field.

In the 2023 draft, many Pistons fans believe they picked up the final piece of the puzzle in defensive maestro Ausar Thompson, selected fifth overall immediately after his twin, Amen, who went fourth to the Houston Rockets.

Thompson is an athletic anomaly, currently tied for first in the NBA in estimated defensive impact per 100 possessions, with his team being 3.5 points better defensively per 100 possessions with him on the floor. He is among the 99th percentile in steal rate and 84th percentile in block rate, leading the Pistons to the 2nd-best defensive rating in the NBA, trailing only the Thunder.

The Pistons have lost four straight games, dropping to fourth in the NBA in net rating, seeking to win their first playoff series since the 2007-2008 playoffs.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jonathan Kuminga (0) celebrates his basket against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, March 1, 2026, in Atlanta. **(AP Photo/Mike Stewart)**

San Antonio Spurs (46-17)

When the Spurs selected 7-foot-5 French big man Victor “Wemby” Wembenyama—who many deem the greatest draft prospect since LeBron James—it seemed all but inevitable that the Spurs would be in the title picture for years to come, but no one expected it to be this soon.

San Antonio won their 40th game vs the Sacramento Kings with 16 losses, having gone 6-1 in the seven games since. The Spurs are third in net rating, trailing only the teams mentioned above, and rank third in defensive net rating. The Spurs’ defense has led them to where they are today, with young guard Stephon Castle and veteran guard De’Aaron Fox helping Wembanyama all but guarantee the team’s return to the playoffs for the first time since 2018-2019.

Wemby, by most accounts, is considered the best defender in basketball due to his otherworldly rim protection, boasting a league-best 4.9 block rate per 100 possessions. Additionally, his team is 8.1 points better defensively per 100 possessions with Wemby on the floor.

The 22-year-old phenom carries heavy expectations to continue winning throughout his career, with many believing it would be a disappointment or failure if the Spurs fail to win multiple championships with Wemby on the roster. This year might still be too early for the young Spurs, but they are far ahead of schedule with teams already panicking over the possibility of Wemby “running” the league for the foreseeable future.

This year’s title race seems wide open, especially in the Eastern Conference, and begs the question whether Phil Jackson’s legendary rule will see another exception. If history tells us anything, either the Thunder, Pistons or Spurs will be bringing home the ultimate prize come playoffs.

* The Celtics reached 40 wins with exactly 20 losses, technically not fitting the criteria of 40 wins before 20 losses.